Every year, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences gathers in some sort of way and gives us enough fuel to make the film community talking. Gratification during award season is one of the main points that this period makes regarding the idea of merit and recognition.

The current iteration of societal engagement with awards of any kind is in quite a weird place. Gone are the days of direct merit and the idea of looking at the principles of craft and storytelling. 

Nowadays, many of look at pieces of art as weapons in a culture war that keeps getting more vicious by the year. It’s about the underlying place of a message within society, not just about the art for the art itself. The death of the author has become an overdriven concept now that we keep them at a higher standard of humane behavior.

Despite all its shortcomings, controversies, and the tangible decline in popularity of the medium we know as cinema, the Academy Awards are still a cultural moment that brings various aspects to the forefront. From notorious winner announcement mistakes to cringeworthy speeches, something has to give with every edition of the vaunted Oscars.

In this article, we will be looking at what the ceremony may bring to the table in terms of winners and nominees. Emerging from the shortlist and eventually receiving a nomination for any category, let alone in a major one, is still a very major distinction in the world of cinema. As such, we will be looking at what some of the voices in the media say will be among the favorites, but also what the odds say according to the major bookmakers.

The Ceremony and The Build-Up

The 98th Ceremony, as has become tradition, will be hosted at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California. Like last year, the host will be none other than Conan O’Brien, bringing his talk-show shtick back to the stage on the 15th of March, 2025. 

The ceremony will have its own ambitions of getting close to the 20 million viewership mark that it merely saw last year, when Anora became the Best Picture winner and the crowning achievement of Sean Baker.

Until then, the shortlist will come on December 16th, 2025, which should not entail any surprises. Following a mid-January voting period, the nominees’ lists will come on the 22nd of January, 2025, with the final voting period between February 26th and the 5th of March.

Key Categories:

Since this article would be way too long if we talked about the odds and predictions for every single category, we will pivot toward those that attract the most attention.

Generally, we can say that the Best Picture, which is the main event after all, is the one that garners the most interest. It’s the ultimate award because it gives a film its ultimate recognition as the best cinematographic achievement for all the possible reasons. From casting to cinematography to the overall design and acting, it’s an award for the ensemble of elements that define that film.

However, the investment also comes from the recognition of the direction that puts together the picture of their vision, not to mention the actors who bring these stories to life. Individual performances are some of the most memorable elements in films, and talking about the actors and their performances is a particularly interesting point.

Best Picture

According to multiple publications that have been making their early analysis and predictions, it appears that this year’s race is quite a tight one, with several pictures vying for the big award. 

Some have been doing the rounds of pop culture, especially Sinners and One Battle After Another, while Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Hamnet have yet to enter the cinemas. Fringe contenders are Wicked: For Good and Frankenstein.

Comparing the odds in the BetBrain model, we see that the betting market sees quite the same top 5 of contenders. The current favorite is PTA’s One Battle After Another, owing to its usual combination of action, comedy, and standout acting, not to mention the subject matter, while the closest contender is Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet.

While the film has garnered a strong following and a slew of pop culture hype earlier this year, Sinners (by Ryan Coogler) is in third place, followed by a tie for 4th between Sentimental Value (by Joachim Trier) and Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme.

Best Director

Without much more context, we need to say that Anderson, Coogler, Zhao, and Trier are also the frontrunners for the Best Director distinction, proving how strongly their creative leadership has been at the forefront of the current effort. However, we also have Park Chan-wook, the director of No Other Choice, rounding out the top 5.

In the order of how the odds appear, PTA seems to be in pole position, followed by the same hierarchy as the Best Picture contenders: Zhao in second, followed by a tie between Coogler and Trier.

Best Leading Actor

Following his rise as one of the biggest-billed actors in Hollywood, Timothée Chalamet will probably return with a consecutive nomination for his role in Marty Supreme, marking his third one after his work in Call Me By Your Name and A Complete Unknown. Both specialists and the odds give him as the favorite, which would mean that it’s finally his year.

His biggest contender seems to be Leo himself. DiCaprio provided a charismatic performance in his usual intense style as the lead man in One Battle After Another, serving as the consensus number 2 across oddsmakers and experts.

The rest of the way is different. Famous on-screen chef Jeremy Allen White is the betting favorite, tied with famous professional The People’s Elbow administrator Dwayne Johnson. Paul Mescal is the 5th-favorite according to the odds.

This is not exactly what many experts think. Famous on-screen Colombian-with-a-Portuguese-accent Wagner Moura is among the favorites, as are famous on-screen boxer Michael B. Jordan and famous on-screen LAPD rookie Ethan Hawke.

Best Leading Actress

As for leading ladies, we need to start with the consensus between expert picks and odds. Jessie Buckley from Hamnet, Rose Byrne from If I Had Legs I’d Kick You and Renate Reinsve from Sentimental Value are at the top of the lines. Jessie is the favorite, while Rose and Renate almost tied at 2nd.

The odds see Cynthia Erivo and Emma Stone as fellow contenders, with Sydney Sweeney making an appearance as well. As per expert picks, we see another name floating around, and that is Amanda Seyfried from The Testament of Anne Lee as one of the other contenders.

Best Supporting Actor

The Supporting Actor battle is mostly a combination of new and old names. Expert publications say that Jacob Elordi has a chance to bag an Oscar early in his career for his role in Frankenstein, while a fellow youngster in Paul Mescal (Hamnet) is one of the biggest contenders. 

Other names that have been strong contenders are Sean Penn for his role in PTA’s contender flick, Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly, and the inevitable Stellan Skarsgård in his Sentimental Value role.

The odds say that Sean Penn has the best chances to win, followed almost to a tee by Stellan. Mescal and Sandler are quite close, while Elordi doesn’t seem to be that favored by the oddsmakers.

Best Supporting Actress

In the Supporting Actress category, we are looking at two very odds-friendly picks that seem to be at the forefront, and we’re talking about two musicians: Ariana Grande in Wicked: For Good and Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another. Per the books, Amy Madigan, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, and Gwyneth Paltrow are quite close.

Expert opinions seem to support these names, with Elle Fanning joining Inga as the contenders who represent Sentimental Value. Amy and Teyana are also favorites here, but Nina Hoss of Hedda fame seems to be at the top of the line.

Conclusion

Now you have an analysis of some of the most popular categories and probable contenders per the odds and various industry experts. There are still some major contenders to appear in cinemas. If you’re the betting type, don’t forget to do it responsibly!